This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering that is a free card and I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They have a Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my first seat into it a couple weeks back and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $25k decoration, then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really aren’t any cash game guards this week for me personally but I moved with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. I also believe she wins the fight and I believe she is going to be the fighter heading for takedowns. I really don’t know how large her ceiling is but in cash games it doesn’t really matter too much because we do not need to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d anticipate about 10x from Yana at a choice win and I will take that day in my money games.
GPP drama of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka struggles often score highly as there are a great deal of scrambles and the grappling advances really add up. I anticipate this to be a very fun fight, but it ought to be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I’m always trying to find a minimum of 10x from my fighters and at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point reduction to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP play here and when he wins I’d expect near 100 DK points.
Play of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
For a fight that I expect to stay standing, I’ve quite a lot of interest in this struggle. I believe it will be an action-packed fight and I think someone gets pumped out. This is also the mid-range struggle of the week, so that I feel a KO from guy would have a fantastic chance to set them on the optimal lineup. I enjoy it even more because I’m picking the underdog to get the knockout and I anticipate Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I will have this struggle in more than half my lineups, but I shall probably have at least twice the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it is a better GPP struggle than it’s for money games, but I think dos Santos is currently in play for cash since he’s an underdog and I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, however I’ll have a fantastic amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at that salary and I really don’t see that happening. If he wins a definite 30-27 conclusion, then he likely scores mid 70’s and in his cost which won’t win anybody a GPP. I don’t think he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does go for takedowns then I don’t see him filing Moraes. So, it has to be a KO from him to cover off that salary and I am not willing to take that risk with my cash. That is why he is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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