This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering this is a free card and that I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a couple weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k decoration, then I will likely take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really aren’t any cash game locks this week for me but I went with Yana since I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. I also think she wins the battle and I believe she is going to be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t understand how large her ceiling is but in money games it does not really matter too much because we don’t need to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d expect about 10x from Yana in a choice win and I will take that all day in my money games.
GPP drama of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka struggles often score highly because there are a lot of scrambles and the grappling improvements really accumulate. I anticipate this is a very fun fight, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I am always trying to find a minimum of 10x in my fighters and at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka didn’t get that with a triumph. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point reduction to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP drama here and if he wins I would anticipate near 100 DK points.
Drama of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
For a struggle I expect to stay standing, I’ve quite a lot of interest in this struggle. I believe it’s going to be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range fight of the week, so that I feel a KO from either guy would have a good opportunity to set them on the optimal lineup. I enjoy it even more because I am choosing the underdog to acquire the knockout and that I expect Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I’ll have this struggle in over half of my lineups, but I will most likely have at least twice the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a much better GPP fight than it’s for money games, but I think dos Santos is currently in play for money since he’s an underdog and I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, however I will have a fantastic amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at the wages and I really don’t see that happening. If he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, then he probably scores mid 70’s and in his cost which won’t win anybody a GPP. I don’t believe he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does move for takedowns then I do not see him submitting Moraes. So, it has to be a KO out of him to pay off that wages and I am not willing to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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