This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and that I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first chair into it a few weeks ago and I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, then I will likely take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really aren’t any cash game guards this week for me personally but I went with Yana since I fully expect this fight to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the ground she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the fight and I think she is going to be the fighter going for takedowns. I really don’t know how large her ceiling is but in money games it does not really matter too much because we don’t need to strike 1st place in a double-up. I would expect about 10x from Yana at a choice win and I’ll take that all day in my money games.
GPP drama of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka struggles tend to score highly as there are a lot of scrambles and all the grappling improvements really accumulate. I anticipate this to be a very fun fight, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I am always trying to find no less than 10x from my fighters and at $8.3k I would be shocked if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point reduction to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP drama here and if he wins I would anticipate near 100 DK points.
Play of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
For a struggle I expect to remain standing, I’ve quite a bit of curiosity in this struggle. I think it will be an action-packed struggle and I think someone gets pumped out. This is likewise the mid-range struggle of this week, so that I think that a KO from guy would have a good opportunity to set them on the perfect lineup. I enjoy it even more because I’m choosing the underdog to acquire the knockout and that I anticipate Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I will have this struggle in more than half my lineups, but that I shall probably have at least twice the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a better GPP struggle than it is for cash games, but I think dos Santos is in play for cash since he’s an underdog and that I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, however I will have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of the week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at that salary and I really don’t see that occurring. If he wins a definite 30-27 conclusion, he then likely scores mid 70’s and in his cost which won’t win anyone a GPP. I don’t think he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he can move for takedowns then I do not see him submitting Moraes. So, it has to be a KO from him to cover off that wages and I am not inclined to take that risk with my money. That is why he is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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